Mets Need To Get Most Value From Dickey - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Mets Need To Get Most Value From Dickey Stuck

Posted on December 2, 2012 at 05:27 PM.

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(Nashville, Tennessee)- The Winter Meetings don�t officially start until Monday, but with teams and media arriving on Sunday, The Gaylord at Opryland Hotel is already beginning to stir with rumors. RA Dickey, a Nashville resident, showed up at the hotel to follow up with Mets� team trainer regarding his abdominal injury. Dickey�s presence allowed for some buzz with only a few writers on hand.

When asked by reporters, Dickey offered that there wasn�t any new progress regarding an extension with the Mets, but that �he is optimistic about how things are going.� With that brief update, along with the news that his injury is healing well, the Mets are in Nashville with options.

By now the story is well known. Dickey is coming off of a Cy Young Award season that saw him win 20 games, lead the league in innings pitched, complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts. At age 37, Dickey has mastered the knuckleball and compiled the greatest knuckleball season in Major League history.

All of that actually poses a problem for the Mets.

At 38 years old, it is difficult to foresee a team putting together an elite group of prospects to secure a pitcher who has mastered his craft and has pitched 616 innings to a 2.95 ERA over the last three seasons. His age, his history, and the fact that he is a knuckleball pitcher all work against his value. It may not be accurate to believe that Dickey won�t be able to repeat his season, but that discounts his ascension and work. Dickey struggled with the pitch until finally getting some sort of semblance of control of it while he was with the Minnesota Twins in 2009. Since signing with the Mets, Dickey has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game.

But, the Mets are a team that is cash strapped. They just committed $140 million to David Wright. Can they actually afford to sign Dickey to a two year extension? Should they just get whatever value that they can and continue to rebuild?

The Mets can afford a two year extension. Aside from Wright, the only other Mets player under contract after this season is Jonathon Niese. Dickey won�t command David Wright money because of his age. He likely commands a two year, $30 million extension if one wants to use Andy Pettitte�s recent contract with the Yankees as a guideline. With few commitments and even fewer quality options available, Dickey is a safe bet, even at 38 years old.

The salary isn�t even all that high considering the recent signing of Jeremy Guthrie and the 2013 salary of Ervin Santana. With new money being funneled in because of the new television contract, salaries are on a slight uptick, something that is already playing out this winter. Paying RA Dickey about $15 million per season isn�t a reach at all.

A knuckleballer is just different. Age isn�t as much of a factor. Tim Wakefield, who was never as dominant as Dickey, pitched until he was 44, much of it in line with his career norm. Phil Neikro averaged 18 wins and a 3.28 ERA from ages 38 through 40. He pitched until he was 48. Although he hung on one season too many, he did win 16 games at age 46. Charlie Hough averaged 17 wins and a 3.63 ERA from ages 38 to 40. He pitched until he was 46. If a pitcher can master the knuckleball---RA Dickey has indeed mastered it--he can pitch well into his 40�s. Giving Dickey a contract that is in line with those of three and four starters is a smart investment.

The Mets should only trade him if they are able to get his true value, not some hedged bet because of his age. If the Mets were to get a Major League ready outfield prospect and a pitcher or two, it could help.

That is most likely doubtful. While many feel that there are seven or eight teams truly interested in Dickey, it will be interesting to see what kind of packages they are offering.

The wise move would be for the Mets to sign Dickey to that extension. If they don�t, they�ll either have to give similar money to less of a pitcher or simply have worse pitching. With Dickey as the innings eater at the top of the rotation, the Mets can ease Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler into the rotation without really burning out the bullpen. There is value in that, aside from projected above average results. Even if Dickey can�t come close to matching his Cy Young season, 200 innings is huge for a team that expects to have at least two young pitchers in its rotation very soon.

The Mets are in Nashville with many needs. They�ll explore all options, including trading Dickey to help fill other holes. But, the wise move would be to sign Dickey, get full value from him, and nurture their young starters. With Wright and Dickey, the Mets have two veteran leaders who will be productive over the next couple of years and, if the Mets� brass does its job correctly, can be surrounded by developing talent. Getting the most value for RA Dickey is one of the biggest factors in future success.